OPINION:
How bad is it for President Biden?
A writer for The Hill penned a story this week headlined “Biden’s life expectancy — and its implications.”
Merrill Matthews wrote: “This is a very uncomfortable topic. But given that voters are choosing a president of the United States in 16 months, it needs to be part of the discussion — indeed, it already is. How likely is it that President Joe Biden would live to finish his second term if he were reelected?”
Then there was this headline: “When is the optimal time for Biden to drop out of the race?” on a piece in The Hill by Douglas MacKinnon, who served as a speechwriter for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
So, it’s out in the open now.
Mr. Biden is 80 years old. His proclivity for gaffes (and falling down — or sometimes up, like when he stumbled ascending the stairs of Air Force One) is legendary.
The list grows almost daily (on Monday he looked wobbly when meeting King Charles III at Buckingham Palace, grabbing his arm for support). Mr. Biden rarely holds press conferences, and when he does, it appears as if he has the questions from the press in advance.
Mr. MacKinnon says he’s hearing from “a number of Democrats — including staunch supporters of the president” that they’re “nervous” and “uncomfortable” about Mr. Biden running in 2024.
“As stated in this space in the past, I don’t believe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024. Now, while the president, his White House and his allies may predictably denounce such speculation as ridiculous or wishful thinking, what if I and others turn out to be correct?” Mr. MacKinnon writes.
And Mr. MacKinnon answers his own question about the best time for Mr. Biden to drop out.
That time is immediately.
The last incumbent president who did not run for a second term was Lyndon Johnson. He bailed out on the last day of March 1968, less than six months before Election Day, just two weeks after President John F. Kennedy’s brother Robert F. Kennedy announced his candidacy.
It’s worth noting that at the time Johnson dropped out, his approval rating stood at just 38.7%.
Mr. Biden‘s rating right now is only a bit higher, at 41.2%.
Mr. MacKinnon notes a striking similarity between Johnson dropping out so late and the situation Mr. Biden is in right now.
“One reason for that question was a lack of confidence in then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey to retain the White House should he become the Democratic nominee. That concern was of course realized when Humphrey became the nominee and got crushed in the general election by Republican Richard Nixon,” he writes.
Democrats live in fear of Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in and winning the nomination. Her approval rating, 39.2%, is even worse than Mr. Biden‘s. And Mr. Biden isn’t sure his vice president is battle ready.
In March, Democratic sources told Reuters that the president is frustrated with how Ms. Harris does her job and doesn’t think she can beat a Republican in the 2024 presidential election.
And there’s another interesting thing going on in the campaign — which is, of course, already underway. Mr. Biden, who ran his last campaign from his basement as he hid from COVID-19 (and voters), is barely trying.
Mr. Biden‘s campaign has so far hired just 20 aides and has no official headquarters. The liberal Politico, founded by two former Washington Post reporters, doesn’t think that’s a good sign.
“Biden’s approach, while designed to save money, carries the risk of keeping his approval ratings at the low level where they are today. It also could limit his ability to better define the contours of the campaign at a time when the Republican field is bludgeoning each other in their own primary. Twelve years ago, his former boss, Barack Obama, moved swiftly in anticipation of facing off against Mitt Romney during the summer before the election year,” three reporters wrote in a story headlined “Biden’s bargain-basement campaign strategy.”
For the record, I’ll say again that Mr. Biden will not run in 2024. Like Johnson in 1968, Mr. Biden will drop out shortly after a handsome, popular (and far younger) candidate announces his candidacy — in this case, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose approval rating among state residents is 56%.
And the reason Mr. Biden is running a “bargain-basement” campaign is because he’s not really running. He’s not even shuffling.
• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.
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