OPINION:
Republicans got rolled last week in Wisconsin, with progressives flipping the ideological balance of the state’s Supreme Court with Janet Protasiewicz’s decisive 11-point victory over conservative Dan Kelly.
Ms. Protasiewicz made abortion a central theme of her campaign, explicitly stating in one advertisement that she supports “a woman’s freedom to make her own decision on abortion.” More than $40 million was spent on the race, making it the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history.
Mr. Kelly’s abortion position was more nuanced — he followed protocol in declining to speak about his personal views on issues that could come before the court. When he was asked whether he thought Wisconsin’s 1849 law banning abortion should be repealed or upheld, he said: “I will decide that question based on the law to the extent it is consistent with our Constitution. One of the commitments a jurist has to have is to have no preconceived notions on how they would rule in a case.”
In a post-Roe world, in swing-state Wisconsin, where abortion is banned in all cases, including those of rape or incest, based on a law that was enacted seven decades before women were even allowed to vote, Mr. Kelly’s non-position was untenable. Wisconsin’s abortion ban is being challenged right now by Josh Kaul, Wisconsin’s Democratic attorney general, and will almost certainly advance on appeal to the state Supreme Court later this year.
Republicans need to wake up and confront the abortion issue head-on instead of trying to avoid it, hoping it will go away. That’s true even in judicial elections, which are supposed to be nonpartisan. Democrats have shattered all the norms.
As the 2022 midterms demonstrated with the “red wave” that never materialized, although the economy ranks as a top concern, the issue of abortion access motivates Democratic voters to get to the polls. This will not change in 2024, as the federal government considers abortion legislation and state governments across the country work out specific restrictions.
Last year, Democrats outspent the GOP 35-to-1 on the issue, with unmarried women voting for Democratic House candidates at a slightly more than 2-to-1 ratio (68% to 31%). A post-election survey from AARP also showed that women over 65 swung significantly toward Democrats between July and November after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.
In Michigan, where abortion was on the ballot under a proposal that would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, including decisions “about all matters relating to pregnancy” such as abortion and contraception, Democrats in 2022 flipped control of the state Legislature for the first time in decades.
Progressives were also successful with measures in California and Vermont to codify legal protections for abortion while defeating amendments that would have allowed lawmakers to impose more restrictions in Kentucky and Montana.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman turned a red Senate seat blue, pledging to defend the procedure and painting his opponent Mehmet Oz as extreme on the issue. Some 36% of Pennsylvania voters said abortion was the most important issue to them, compared with 26% for inflation, according to the National Election Pool exit poll.
Dr. Oz stumbled when asked in a debate about his position on abortion, stating he didn’t support a federal ban but then adding that “local political leaders” should be part of the decision-making process. Clear as mud.
What’s baffling is that there is a middle ground in the abortion debate.
Last year, Republicans who went on offense on the issue won their races, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, North Carolina Sen. Ted Budd, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. All highlighted the radical Democratic position of abortion on demand up until the day of birth, and articulated protections for the unborn, such as once the child can feel pain or when a heartbeat is detected.
A June Gallup Poll found that 55% of Americans thought abortion should generally be illegal in the second trimester, making them sympathetic to 12-week bans. But it also that found 58% opposed overturning Roe, meaning they would like some amount of choice when confronted with the topic and not total bans.
Voters are wary of extremes on either side of the abortion issue, and when presented with an all-or-nothing message, they’re more likely to go with the former. Even red-leaning Kansas rejected an effort to strip abortion protections from the state’s constitution last year. Support for the referendum wasn’t even as strong in conservative counties as its proponents expected.
Republicans need to recognize where voters are and meet them there. This doesn’t mean abandoning their values but taking more limited wins where they can get them while acknowledging that total bans on the procedure are a political loser. They need to be clear in their messaging and not shy away from the issue on the campaign trail.
A pro-life consensus can be built, but it will take time, hard work and persuasion. Meanwhile, compromise will be needed.
• Kelly Sadler is the commentary editor at The Washington Times.
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