OPINION:
The task of diplomats is to negotiate, conciliate and sometimes haggle. When formal, face-to-face diplomacy fails, they negotiate, conciliate and haggle by other means.
In the aftermath of a fruitless effort to revive the so-called Iran nuclear deal, President Biden’s team of talkers are said to be still engaged in bargaining with Iran — on an informal and indirect basis.
Given the Islamic Republic’s history of diplomatic double-dealing, though, any unwritten non-deal that is struck will not be worth the paper it’s not written on.
American negotiators and their Iranian counterparts are nearing completion of discussions facilitated by assistance from Oman, according to reports in The Times of Israel and The New York Times.
Among provisions of the “unwritten understandings,” Iran would limit its enrichment of fissile material to 60% — below the level of nuclear bomb capability.
Tehran would also grant International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors greater access to its nuclear facilities, limit its support of proxy terror attacks in Syria and Iraq, halt drone shipments to Russia for use in Ukraine, and release three American hostages.
As for Washington, it reportedly would shelve proposed U.N. penalties for Iran’s nuclear violations, refrain from leveling fresh economic sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds.
If a fresh pact would reduce frayed-nerve tensions, what’s not to like? Iran is not noted for honoring agreements sealed with a handshake, a fist bump or even a John Hancock.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action approved by Iran and the so-called P5+1 — consisting of the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany and the European Union — called for the regime to pause most aspects of its nuclear program for a decade in return for economic sanctions relief.
Israel’s shocking discovery of a vast, secret archive of Iran’s nuclear weapons research prompted then-President Donald Trump to end U.S. compliance with the deal’s terms in 2018.
There is little reason to believe Tehran would prove more trustworthy this time. Skepticism is particularly appropriate in light of Iran’s skill at exporting crude oil in contravention of economic sanctions.
By selling to nations such as India and China, which maintain the ability to conduct business outside the Western banking system, Iran enjoyed record oil revenue in 2022.
Moreover, the regime’s sanctions-busting practices have served as a model for Russia as it battles Europe’s economic retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, Voice of America reports.
Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has taken to harping on the international community’s inability to stop an Iran bomb if it seeks to build one.
Deterred by neither his provocations nor Israel’s exposure of his regime’s nuclear-weapons plans, Mr. Biden’s negotiators plow ahead, undeterred by their embarrassing nuclear naivete.
Talking up reconciliation is what professional negotiators do, and few places are more in need of it than the Middle East. Still, Americans have little use for an agreement with a hostile power that is affirmed for diplomacy’s sake alone — with few tangible benefits in the real world.
When a formal nuclear deal failed to promote peace with Iran, an unwritten non-deal is similarly destined to disappoint.
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