TAMPA, Fla. — The U.S. military routinely prepares contingency plans for virtually every possible conflict, including a surprise Chinese attack on Taiwan and a sudden conflagration in the Middle East, Africa or elsewhere.
War-gaming a theoretical clash with North Korea is no easy task. The regime has sealed itself off from outside penetration so successfully that even the top uniformed U.S. commanders acknowledge that they have major knowledge gaps about Pyongyang’s capabilities, its battlefield doctrines and its soldiers’ willingness to fight.
“It’s a literal black hole,” said Maj. Gen. Michael E. Martin, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command-Korea, which would play a vital role if a shooting war breaks out on the tense, long-divided Korean Peninsula.
In an interview with The Washington Times, Gen. Martin offered a blunt take on whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s military could inflict significant damage on the U.S. and its ally South Korea in the event of a major conflict.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons are another volatile variable. Washington and its partners have insights into Pyongyang’s nuclear program, but some of the North’s other capabilities remain mysterious.
“I don’t know, but I have to treat them as they are,” Gen. Martin said when asked whether the North Korean military is competent and capable by traditional standards. “We have to. Because if we don’t and we’re dismissive, we could undershoot the target if we ever get told it’s game time. We have to play that they can communicate amongst themselves, they do have mission-type orders, they do — potentially, not all militaries do this — empower at lower levels. I can’t tell you for sure, [but] I can’t discount it.”
Gen. Martin spoke with The Times on the sidelines of the Special Operations Forces conference, one of the world’s largest gatherings of military leaders, defense contractors and other players in the high-stakes special operations universe.
He said he and his forces must prepare to fight a North Korean military machine much stronger and better organized than it might be. That includes making educated guesses about what Pyongyang might bring to the battlefield. Intelligence from South Korea and other regional partners gives a window.
The 2023 Global Firepower ranking, which considers more than 60 factors, including manpower, financial resources and logistical capabilities, has rated North Korea’s military 34th out of 145 countries. The U.S. military was ranked first and South Korea sixth in the private survey.
Gen. Martin said commanders in recent U.S. military history have fought without full information about the enemy.
“For example, with the Taliban, we could make an educated assumption that they had SA-7s,” he said, referring to the surface-to-air missiles that a single militant can carry on his shoulder. “If you’re going to infiltrate forces early on, whether it be rotary or fixed-wing [aircraft], you do have to account for that threat. That’s no different than in North Korea. My assumption is they have something similar, SA-7s or something even more lethal.
“I don’t know if they have full battalions or half-battalions. It’s too hard to know,” he said of the North Korean military. “So you plan for full battalions that you’re going to face.”
‘Arrogance kills’
By the numbers alone, the North Korean military is one of the world’s most formidable. Its force has about 1.2 million personnel, according to estimates by the Council on Foreign Relations, and has a nuclear arsenal and a robust ballistic missile program. Pyongyang has launched more than 100 missile tests since 2022.
In a launch last year, a missile traveled over Japan and caused short-lived panic.
Pyongyang hasn’t tested a nuclear weapon since 2017, though its nuclear program remains the biggest wild card in any hypothetical clash.
In the event of a collapse of the North Korean regime, U.S. military personnel would play a central part in securing Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpile. Army forces, in concert with South Korean partners, would likely take the lead in securing strategically important nuclear sites, and U.S. special operations forces may be tasked with identifying and locating North Korean figures in positions of influence in the event of a power vacuum, officials said.
Many are expecting a destabilizing nuclear test by Pyongyang. Diplomatic contacts between Washington and Pyongyang evaporated after President Trump attempted to negotiate a sweeping denuclearization deal with Mr. Kim in 2018 and 2019.
The three extraordinary face-to-face meetings between the two leaders ultimately failed to produce an agreement to end North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from crushing economic sanctions. The Biden administration’s goal is to resume diplomatic engagement with the reclusive nation to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Little progress has been made over the past two years, and tensions remain high.
Those tensions were at the top of the agenda last month when South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited Mr. Biden in Washington. The two nations also announced an upgraded joint nuclear deterrence plan, which includes the impending docking of a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea for the first time in 40 years.
For all the U.S. and South Korean planning and preparation, specialists agree with Gen. Martin that many unknowns remain about how the North Korean military would fight.
The Kim regime’s trademark over-the-top rhetoric when faced with challenges from the U.S. and its allies offers few clues to what the North Korean military is capable of and how it would react if it felt the future of the regime is in danger. State-controlled media in Pyongyang repeatedly stress the unity of the military and the people, highlighting the army’s role in building houses, clearing roads and organizing disaster relief for civilians.
“All the miracles and achievements brought about one after another in the country in recent years are the products born of kindred affection between the people and the service personnel and the great army-people unity,” Naenara, the official web portal of the North Korean government, said in a typical commentary.
David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the North Korean armed forces emphasize loyalty to Mr. Kim above all else, including traditional command-and-control structures or empowering leaders at lower levels.
“While we believe this is a recipe for failure in any military, we just can’t know for sure how the troops will perform when North Korea launches an attack,” he said. “And we have to be careful of mirror imaging or projecting our knowledge and beliefs on the enemy. I personally do believe that the North Korean system is doomed to failure, but I am not willing to bet on it. And I agree with the idea that we must prepare for the worst case.
“We need to be cautious and properly prepare our military. Arrogance kills,” Mr. Maxwell said. “I would rather assume a relatively capable [North Korean military] and be proved wrong rather than assuming an easy war that could lead to catastrophic results.”
As North Korea pours more and more money into its military while its citizens face food shortages and a strangled economy, the toll of human suffering is immense, Gen. Martin said.
“How do you have this rogue nation that continues to advance high-end weapons programs, who has self-imposed a blockade, and still keeps moving forward at the expense of their people? It defies any kind of understanding for me,” he told The Times. “It breaks your heart. From what I know, it breaks my heart.”
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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