OPINION:
As the 2000 Republican primaries approached, Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah called me. We had been friends for years, and he was calling to let me know that he was about to announce his candidacy for president. He wanted to know if I would help. I said I couldn’t because several of the other candidates were good friends. He thought about that and said, “I can understand that and there’ll be no hard feelings.”
The odds-on favorite at that early stage was Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who had a good campaign organization and had raised boatloads of early money. The rest of the field was far behind until Arizona Sen. John McCain jumped in and threatened for a time to deny Mr. Bush the nomination. None of the other contenders that year gained traction: Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, religious right conservative activist Gary Bauer, North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole, businessman Steve Forbes, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, author and activist Alan Keyes, and former Vice President Dan Quayle. It was quite a field.
Mr. Hatch and I bantered for a bit, and I gave him a few suggestions. Finally, I asked him a question that I’d asked other candidates for the presidency in the past. “I know you’d like to be president, but I’m not sure you have a plan or strategy to get there. In my experience, too many candidates run without any idea of how to get from where they are to where they want to be. What’s your plan?”
The senator thought for a minute and said that “something tells me Bush isn’t going to make it and I can’t imagine McCain won’t blow himself up at some point.”
“But if that’s what happens,” I responded, “what makes you think primary voters will turn to you rather than one of the other wannabes?”
“Well,” he said, “lightning will have to strike one of us.” I allowed as how that was not much of a plan.
Although I knew my friend put a lot of faith in God, I thought he might be asking for quite a miracle if that’s how he hoped to win his party’s nomination. Several of the other candidates probably didn’t have a better plan and frankly, he might have a closer relationship with God than most of them, but I told him I suspected that this wasn’t going to be enough.
I remember this conversation as half a dozen Republicans who have looked into their mirrors and seen a president looking back acknowledge that they are considering a run for the White House in 2024. Some of them, like former President Donald Trump, have a plan, in his case to hold on to a core of supporters who make him a favorite in a multi-candidate field. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans to build on a solid gubernatorial performance to appeal to traditional and Trump Republicans as a less polarizing alternative.
Others seem to believe that their 15 minutes of political fame as secretary of state, U.N. ambassador or senator will gain them the support they need if the front-runners stumble. And a few more are convinced that there might be an anti-Trump faction of the GOP that will reward them for their opposition to Mr. Trump as president and now. Most of these have a plan not unlike Hatch’s more than two decades ago; they are hoping and perhaps praying that lightning will strike.
That plan did not work in 2000 and is not likely to work next year. Fate or even God does not get candidates from point A to point B. That’s something they must do on their own. The Hatch campaign lasted a matter of weeks before the senator realized that Messrs. Bush and McCain would not self-destruct. Hatch was better qualified than either of the front-runners, but being better qualified than the competition has never been enough by itself to get one from point A to point B.
Many of those contemplating a run for the White House next year might make good presidents, but anyone thinking of throwing in with any of them should first ask the question I asked Orrin Hatch back in 2000: “What’s your plan to get you from where you are to where you want to go?”
It’s a simple enough question, but some won’t have much of an answer. The plan or strategy may not work, but they better have one that will give them a realistic chance to make it through the caucuses, primaries and their party’s nominating convention. Simply hoping or counting on the competition to collapse is not such a plan.
Orrin Hatch should not have bet everything on a lightning strike in 2000, and neither should today’s wannabes who see a president staring back at them whenever they look into a mirror.
• David Keene is editor-at-large at The Washington Times.
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