OPINION:
The political world has realized for some time that President Biden’s best shot at another four years in the White House flows through a rematch with former President Donald Trump. Mr. Biden can’t run on his record, and most voters, including Democrats, doubt he’s mentally or physically up to the job today, much less five years from now.
Still, Mr. Biden could win if he convinces the American voter that, bad record notwithstanding, he’s just a little better than Mr. Trump. When the pandemic allowed Mr. Biden to hide in his Delaware basement, it worked. But now that he’s been out of the basement, that may be a harder sell.
The continual attacks on Mr. Trump and the mainstream media’s efforts brand “MAGA” voters as extremists, insurrectionists, racists or worse might as well be part of a coordinated if cynical effort to help the former president secure the Republican nomination once again. The raid on Mar-a-Lago, the frantic effort to indict Mr. Trump on anything anywhere, and the continual attacks on anyone who voted for him seem designed to keep the former president angry enough to run again while keeping his base joined to him at the hip.
Democrats at the state level have successfully channeled millions into Republican Senate, gubernatorial and even Supreme Court primary races on behalf of Trump-like candidates they deem easy general election marks. They’ve won Senate races in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Arizona in this way, as well as governorships in New Hampshire and Arizona. They even managed to hold on to the Wisconsin Supreme Court by aiding the nomination of a weak general election candidate and funding third-party candidates to draw votes from their major party opponents. Now they’re doing the same thing at the presidential level.
Pulling strings to pick your weakest opponent has been tried or hoped for before. President Jimmy Carter was not popular in 1980. He faced a determined primary challenger in Sen. Edward Kennedy and an economy in the dumpster; most regarded him as less than competent on defense and foreign policy. In a meeting with the American Civil Liberties Union’s Chuck Morgan and his chief political advisers, Mr. Carter acknowledged his challenges, but argued that if the Republicans were foolish enough to nominate “that actor Reagan, we’ll win rather easily.”
He got his wish, but he lived to regret it.
Whether Mr. Biden gets his hoped-for rematch or not, this campaign will be far from uplifting. Only Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is capable of smiling. Mr. Scott remembers that among Reagan’s greatest strengths were his likability and innate optimism. Those secret weapons prevented opponents from persuading voters to fear the Republican. His affability and refusal to engage in the sorts of personal attacks so common today made him the most formidable candidate the Democrats had encountered in decades.
The parties and the electorate have changed since Reagan’s day. As popular as Reagan was in 1984, polls showed that 30% of the electorate was up for grabs. Most of these “persuadable” voters ultimately voted for and gave Reagan a landslide reelection, but both parties had to appeal to them by talking about the future rather than simply trashing their opponents.
Sixteen years later, when Texas Gov. George W. Bush took on Vice President Al Gore, only 8% of voters could be categorized as “persuadable.” That made all the difference, dictating a negative strategy. Both parties focused on mobilizing their base, identifying voters already favorably disposed to their candidates, and turning them out on Election Day. Persuasion took a back seat to tribal motivation, which has been in the driver’s seat ever since.
Today, with Democrats and Republicans fairly evenly divided, attacks on one’s opponents dominate every race from the school board to the presidency. Dire consequences are predicted should voters vote for the other guy, who is portrayed as a danger to our way of life. It’s little wonder that most Americans believe politicians are a rotten bunch; hundreds of millions of dollars are spent every election cycle to portray them as such.
Democrats and Republicans alike are worried that many of their voters will just stay home next fall faced with a choice between an aging and marginally competent incumbent and a challenger that would bring anything but “normalcy” to an increasingly dysfunctional politics. Who can blame them?
• David Keene is editor-at-large at The Washington Times.
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